NSU Research Contributions
Title : Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh
Authors : Zakaria Shams Siam, Md. Arifuzzaman, Md. Salik Ahmed, Faisal Ahamed Khan, Md. Harunur Rashid, Md. Shariful Islam
Abstract : Background: Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country. Objectives: Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions. Methods: We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak. Results: The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic. Conclusion: Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.
|Journal : Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health||Volume : 10||Year : 2021||Issue :|
|Pages : 100684||City :||Edition :||Editors :|
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