Title : Human appropriation of net primary production in Bangladesh, 1700–2100

Authors : Riasad Bin Mahbub, Nahian Ahmed, Shupa Rahman, Mohammad Mosharraf Hossain, Mohammad Sujauddin

Abstract : In the global debate on environmental integrity, land system is one of the nine planetary boundaries. Bangladesh being one of the top densely populated but rapidly developing countries, lacking in statistical inventories, has a gloomy history of agricultural and infrastructural intensification at the expense of forest cover loss. However, to what extent its land has lost productivity due to land use changes is yet to be calculated for Bangladesh which this study explores for 400 years (1700–2100) through the lens of human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP). It shows an increase in both spatial HANPP from 1700 (275.94 gC/m2) to 1992 (594.38 gC/m2) and non-spatial HANPP from 1961 (1169.37 gC/m2) to 2016 (1318.14 gC/m2) based on which future projections have been made. Population is a reliable predictor of HANPP which indicated the expected HANPP of 1458.20 gC/m2 by 2100. Bangladesh shows much higher HANPP compared to its peers and hence the approaches and methodologies of this research may help countries with poor statistical database to calculate HANPP. This study rendered where and to what degree the net primary productivity was appropriated in Bangladesh, suggesting region specific policy and programme interventions necessary to reduce HANPP. The GDP-HANPP regression model indicates a loss of approximately 8.62 million 2018 US$ GDP for reduction of HANPP by 1?kt C/year which can be used as a guiding value in seeking fund from carbon financing mechanisms to pursue the gross HANPP reduction threshold of 926.675 gC/m2/year corresponding to the achievement of 25% forest cover in Bangladesh. The HANPP case of Bangladesh provides clue to countries witnessing rapid population and economic growth and associated with large-scale land use changes to expand agriculture and infrastructure, indicating that inaction on their part in harmonizing development planning based on HANPP indicators may jeopardize the attainment of SDGs.

Journal : Land Use Policy Volume : 87 Year : 2019 Issue :
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