Title : Searching for a Break and Non-Stationarity in GDP of Bangladesh

Authors : Md. Sharif Hossain

Abstract : It has been suggested that estimates of long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward or downward bias due to the presence of a breakpoint in the intercept or in the trend function, or hybrid of the two in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh. The gross domestic products are affected by different random factors, e.g. natural disasters like as flood, cyclone etc, due to political and ideological conflicts among different political parties hartals and strikes are frequently occurred in Bangladesh, due to the policy changes of the government, due to change in policies and views of different foreign aid institutes like as ADB, IMF, World Bank EU, etc, due to change in policies of different aid countries, and for large scale investment in the country etc. That is why, in this paper an attempt has been made to investigate the breakpoints in the series of GDP in Bangladesh and also another attempt has been made to investigate the existence of non-stationarity in the variable GDP by using unit root tests. Another attempt has also been made to investigate whether or not our non-stationary results of GDP is sensitive to structural breaks. Here the modern econometric techniques are applied to search endogenously for a break point and test for a non-stationarity in the series of GDP.

Journal : Journal of Business Studies Volume : XXVII Year : 2007 Issue : 1
Pages : 26-50 City : Edition : Editors :
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