Title : Did national holidays accelerate COVID-19 diffusion in Bangladesh? A case study

Authors : Mohammad Radid Khan, Sayem Mottakin, Md Ahsan Kabir, Md. Enamul Hoque, Mohammad Ruhul Amin, Md Shariful Islam

Abstract : Bangladesh registered 1573828 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the death toll crossed the grim milestone of 27946 across the country as of 9th December, 2021. Despite the enforcement of stringent COVID-19 measures, including nationwide lockdowns, travel bans, tighter curbs on nonessential activities, and social distancing, the country witnessed an accelerated diffusion of coronavirus cases during the national events and festivals in 2020. The present study aims to examine the association between the national events / festivals and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 by looking at the instantaneous reproduction number, R t , of the 64 districts in Bangladesh. We further illustrate the COVID-19 diffusion explicitly in Dhaka Division at the first phase of the pandemic. The comprehensive analysis shows an escalation of R t value in Dhaka and in all industrialized cities during the major events such as, Garments reopening and religious holidays in Bangladesh. Based on the analysis, a set of array measurements has been also suggested to evade the future pandemic risks while running the national festival activities.

Journal : MedRxiv Volume : Year : 2022 Issue :
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