Title : A SIMULATED ECONOMICAL MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLE ; DERIVATION OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL OF PERMANENT AND TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT AND ALSO OF THEIR OUTPUT


Authors : Md. Sharif Hossain

Abstract : Nowadays, Statistics, Econometrics, and Business Cycle study play an important role in almost every field of social and economic research. Not only in social and economic research, but in the field of engineering and also in the field of medical science. Especially, Business Cycle stydy are widely applicable in the field of industrial and business sector to make decision about the economic activities at the present time and also for future time. The Business Cycle study enables us to find the factors which are responsible for the economic fluctuations. On the basis of the forecasting, desirable decisions can be made about output, employment, costs, shipments etc. In the field of industrial sectors, businessmen will be benefited from an introduction to forecasting concepts and techniques and to explanations of business cycles. In industrial sector for economic growth it is much more important to make decisions about output, employment, and cost and also for shipment at the present time and also for future. In 1989 Frank de Leeuw has been provided a theoretical model to make decisions about output, employment, shipments, etc on the basis of the pioneering work of Holt, Modigliani, Muth and Simon's (1960). But from the Frank de Leeuw's (1989) methodology, we cannot make decision, or we cannot find the efficiency of the permanent and temporary employment separately. That is why, the principle purpose of this thesis is to modify his developed cost function in order to make decision, or to find the efficiency of the permanent and temporary employment separately. The modification has been done for the orders model, and also for the shipments model. Also in order to obtain the dynamic model of permanent and temporary employment, and also about their output, another attempt has been made, to use the reduced form equations system for the orders model and also for the shipments model. For the empirical verification of the theoretical construct another attempt has been made to simulate a Japanese quarterly data. The simulation has been done only for the shipments model. For the orders model, data are not available, that is why we are unable to simulate the data on the basis of the orders model. For the simulation of the Japanese quarterly data, we use the standard or expected value of the parameters that are included in the cost function. But, we don't know the desirable value of the parameters. That is why, another attempt has been made to provide the procedures theoretically to estimate the parameters value that are included in the cost function. The estimation section has been broken into two parts. One is the, estimation technique without the presence of heteroscedasticity. And, another one is, the estimation technique with the presence of heteroscedasticity. The estimation section with the presence of heteroscedasticity also has been divided into two parts. One is the, estimation technique without the presence of autocorrelation. And another one is, estimation with the presence of autocorrelation. Finally, for the empirical verification of the theoretical construct of this study, a set of economic data has been collected.


Journal : Volume : Year : 1999 Issue :
Pages : City : Edition : Editors :
Publisher : ISBN : Book : Chapter :
Proceeding Title : Institution : Kyushu University, Japan Issuer : Number :