NSU Research Contributions

Title : The role of international trade under a changing climate: Insights from global economic modelling

Authors : Helal Ahammad, Edwina Heyhoe and others

Abstract : The likely impacts of future climate change and socio-economic drivers on international trade in agrifood commodities would vary depending on assumptions regarding how the future will evolve as encapsulated by ‘scenarios’. The projected agrifood trade impacts are also likely to vary across economic models, depending on model types and underlying theoretical structures. To improve understanding on why simulated impacts differ across models under specific ‘scenarios’, results from a recent AgMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) economic modelling exercise are used, with particular focus on the agriculture sector. The analysis presented in this chapter suggests an increasing role for trade under future climate change but the extent of the change in agrifood trade varies substantially between models. Based on the insights from the analysis, a number of potential issues are recommended for future modelling and research.

Journal :	Volume :	Year : 2015	Issue :
Pages : 294-312	City : Rome	Edition :	Editors : A. Elbehri
Publisher : UN Food and Agriculture Organization	ISBN : ISBN 978-92-5-108699-5	Book : Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade	Chapter : 10
Proceeding Title :	Institution :	Issuer :	Number :