NSU Research Contributions
Title : Institutional Factors in Determining China’s Bilateral Trade Flow: Does One Belt One Road Initiative Matter?
Authors : Gour Goswami, Nisit Panthamit
Abstract : This paper examines the role of political risk factors in deterring the trade flow of China with her 132 trading partners for the period 1984-2015. Using twelve ICRG political risk factors we use factor analysis and retrieve three underlying factors of political risk named ‘Cultural Rigidities’, ‘Governance Failure’ and ‘Partners’ Adverse Feeling about China’. After controlling for Gravity variables and these three factors into a dynamic system GMM we show their impact on Chinese bilateral trade flow. BRI has been found as effective for China with MENA countries, ADB countries, ASEAN10+China, and ASEAN10+3 but detrimental to trade flow within ASEAN10+6 set-up.
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