Title : COVID-19 Impact on Tourism Inflow in Selected Asia-Pacific Countries: A Gravity Model Framework

Authors : Gour Gobinda Goswami, Md. Rubaiyat Sarwar, Md. Mahbubur Rahman

Abstract : The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism flow of eight Asia Pacific Countries named Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Using monthly data from 2019M1 to 2021M10 and 48 origin and eight destination countries in a Panel Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation technique and Gravity equation framework, this paper finds that after controlling for Gravity determinants, COVID-19 periods have 0.689% lower tourism inflow compared to non-COVID-19 periods. The total number of observations used in the paper is 12138. A 1% increase in COVID-19 transmission in the origin country leads to a 0.037% decline in tourism flow in the destination country, while the reduction is just 0.011% from the destination. On the mortality side, the corresponding decrease in tourism flow from the origin countries is 0.030%, whereas it is 0.038% from the destination countries. A 1% increase in vaccine intensity in the destination country leads to a 0.10 % improvement in tourism flow, whereas the vaccination at the source has no statistically significant effect. The results are also robust at a 1% level in a pooled OLS and Random-effects specification for the same model. The findings provide insights into managing tourism flow concerning transmission, death, and vaccination coverage in destination and origin countries. The COVID-19-induced tourism decline may also be considered another channel through which the global recession has been aggravated. If we convert this decline in terms of loss of GDP, the global figure will be huge, and airline industries will have to cut down many service products for a long time to recover from the COVID-19-induced tourism decline. It is to be realized by the policymaker and politicians that infectious diseases have no national boundary, and the problem is not local or national. That’s why it is to be faced globally with cooperation from all the countries. This is the first paper to deal with tourism disruption due to COVID-19 in eight Asia-Pacific countries in a Gravity model framework.

Journal : International Journal of Emerging Markets (IJOEM) Volume : Year : 2023 Issue :
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