NSU Research Contributions
Title : Does Political Risk lower Bilateral Trade Flow? A Gravity Panel Framework for Thailand vis-a-vis her Trading Partners
Authors : Gour Goswami, Nisit Panthamit
| Journal Title: International Journal of Emerging Markets | Volume Number: 17 | Publication Year : 2022 | Issue Number: 2 |
| Index: scopus | Ranking: Q2 | ISSN: 1746-8809 | Publisher Name: Emerald |
| Pages : 600-620 | |||
| ISBN : 1746-8817 | |||
| Funding Source : External | Year of Funding : 2026 | |
| Project Title : Chiang Mai University | Funding Agency/Organizations : Chiang Mai University | Total Funding Amount ($): 2000 |
| Project Start Year : 24-Jan-20 | Project Deadline Year : 01-Jan-21 |
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Direct Sustainable Development Goals : SDG9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure |
Indirect Sustainable Development Goals : SDG9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure |
Sustainable Development Sub Goals : Develop quality, sustainable infrastructure Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization Support infrastructure in developing countries |
| Impact statement: Political risk factors play a pivotal role in determining bilateral trade flows among Asian countries, particularly those of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The main purpose of this research paper is to examine the impact of disaggregated political risk on Thailand's bilateral trade flows vis-à-vis its 132 trading partners, a prominent member of ASEAN. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data of Thailand with its partner countries for the period 1984–2015, this paper uses four different panel specifications, namely pooled ordinary least squares and random effects estimations (estimated generalized least squares estimation) of three types, by controlling for cross-sectional heteroscedasticity, time-wise heteroscedasticity, and contemporaneous correlation. Findings Holding other gravity-based determinants constant, for a one-unit increase in the ranking of the indicator of military in politics at home and abroad, trade flows decrease by 5–9% of Thailand's total trade per year. For other types of political risks, such as government instability at home and abroad, difficulties in investment profile at home and abroad, and internal and external conflict at home and abroad. | Collaboration: Partner University | Keywords: Political Risk; Bilateral Trade Flow; Dynamic Gravity; Gravity Model; Thailand; ADB; ASEAN; ASEAN+3; Panel Data |
