Title : A panel path analysis approach to the determinants of coronavirus disease 2019 transmission: does testing matter for confirmed cases?


Authors : Gour Gobinda Goswami, ARM Mehrab Ali, Sharose Islam


Journal Title: Journal of Economic Studies Volume Number: 48 Publication Year : 2021 Issue Number: 8
Index: scopus Ranking: Q1 ISSN: 0144-3585 Publisher Name: Emerald
Pages : 1624-1648
ISBN : 1758-7387
Funding Information:
Funding Source : None
Other Information:
Direct Sustainable Development Goals :
SDG3 Good Health & Well-being
Indirect Sustainable Development Goals :
SDG3 Good Health & Well-being
Sustainable Development Sub Goals :
Achieve universal health coverage
Strengthen capacity for health risk management
Impact statement: Purpose The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test in transmission data globally and to reveal that the true picture of transmission history cannot be revealed if countries do not perform the test adequately. Design/methodology/approach Using Our World in Data for 212 countries and areas and 162 time periods daily from December 31, 2019, to June 09, 2020, on an unbalanced panel framework, we have developed a panel-based path analysis model to explore the interdependence of various actors of COVID-19 cases of transmission across the globe. After controlling for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), age structure, and government stringency, we examine the proposition that COVID-19 testing positively affects transmission. As an anecdote, we also explore the direct, indirect, and total effects of potential determinants of transmission cases worldwide and gain an idea of each factor's relative role in a structural equation framework. Collaboration: NGO Keywords: COVID-19; Corona Virus; Our World in Data; Path Analysis; Panel Data; Contagion; Transmission; Government Stringency; Role of T