NSU Research Contributions
Title : From Judgmental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?
Authors : Gour Goswami, Mohammad Mashnun Hussain
| Journal Title: Bangladesh Development Studies | Volume Number: 36 | Publication Year : 2013 | Issue Number: 3 |
| Index: scopus | Ranking: C | ISSN: 0304095X | Publisher Name: BIDS |
| Pages : 1-41 | |||
| Funding Source : None |
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Direct Sustainable Development Goals : SDG9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure |
Indirect Sustainable Development Goals : SDG9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure |
Sustainable Development Sub Goals : Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization |
| Impact statement: Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) conducted by multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF falls under the domain of Judgmental Projection, reflecting their views or judgments about the economy. The study incorporates time series forecast using the ARIMA method to analyze debt sustainability in practice in Bangladesh. More specifically, macro, fiscal, current account and debt variables have been forecasted according to the requirement of debt sustainability framework (DSF) for use in a standard DSA template. Using the time series forecast-based inputs, the study concludes that debt is sustainable for Bangladesh for the period 2013-2033 based on the standard country-specific debt burden threshold. The study notes that results from different methodologies broadly follow a similar path. However, time-series forecasts imply a better economic situation, with improved repayment capacity, compared with judgmental projections. Keywords: DSA, Bangladesh, ARIMA, Time Series Forecasting | Collaboration: None | Keywords: DSA, Bangladesh, ARIMA, Time Series Forecasting |
